Professor Peter Miller an expert in Statistics has provided his notes for distribution from interview with Dan Hanson HAA on 27th March, 2023. Please share widely.
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Corona virus vaccine research – historical and current context
Excess mortality around the world
Causation and Bradford Hill principles
Corona virus vaccine research – historical and current context
Research on corona virus vaccines back to 1960 showed that the experiments were dangerous and highly unsuccessful with children, and animals dying from the experimental vaccines. The continuous theme in the research was to ‘never give this vaccine to humans”. So, alarm bells were ringing even though the new vaccines were of the new mRNA type.
The pharmaceutical company research on the new covid vaccines was not ‘independent’ research and Pfizer’s initial studies were flawed in many respects. There was no ‘independent’ research on the new vaccines.
The covid vaccines were not ‘approved’ for use in the usual way but were allowed to be given to the public under ‘emergency use’, ‘provisional approval’, or other provisions and every person who took the vaccine is a part of an ‘experimental trial’. The public were not made aware of this in an explicit way.
I was cancelled off LinkedIn for publishing critiques and emerging peer reviewed science of the safe and effective narrative from the government.
There was also an issue of the ‘silence’ and ‘censorship’ from the medical provision, academic and other professionals due to the coercion of government and private companies. There is an ethical responsibility for professionals to speak up about the issues. Academic also have a ‘role in society’ due to our expertise, to question on behalf of the population. Medical people in particular have a sworn oath to do no harm and to speak up.
We cannot move on from what has happened and the excuses that the government and others did their best does not wash. The research evidence shows there has been dishonesty by the health bureaucrats and we cannot move on from the problem with the vaccines until we know why people are getting injuries and deaths from the vaccines. An example was the claim by the health bureaucrats that there was evidence that the vaccines would stop transmission when the companies who made the vaccines never made that claim. It was made up by the health bureaucrats. We can’t move on, as the short-term effects are catastrophic and we are yet to reach the mid-term and long terms effects. If we trend the short-term effect forward, it does not look good for the future.
There are about 1300 ‘’adverse effects of special interest” raised by Pfizer in their internal documents that are worrying and need to be investigated. The US government and Pfizer tried to lock these documents up for 55 years in a court action in the US. These documents have now been released to the public. Almost every day, another area of adverse effects is emerging and thousands of people are being denied care for adverse reactions from the covid vaccines.
We need to rely on real experts. In Australia we have Professors’ Clancy and Professor Borody who are the real experts, not insignificant public servants. There are thousands of scientists who are speaking against these vaccines and putting forward evidence. We are not alone in raising the alarm that this experiment needs to stop immediately.
There are differences in how countries collect health issue data. But academics are able to research this data and they have techniques to enable them to make comparisons.
We only know about 50% of what is in these so-called vaccines. The people who administer the injections don’t know what is in them as there are no descriptions on the labels. The population receiving the vaccines don’t know and can’t find out what is in the vaccines and the governments don’t know what is in them. Where does that leave people who by law need to give their informed consent and the medical community who must obtain informed consent? We can’t research the vaccines and find out what is causing the adverse effects, if we don’t know what is in the vaccine!!
Excess mortality around the world
The mainstream media are leaving this alone.
Before we get into excess mortality or other related issues, it is important to establish that rather than relying on opinions, we need to look at actual data and research evidence. There is plenty of data and research evidence around and it comes in many forms.
Excess deaths Australia
In regard to excess deaths, firstly in Australia, the main source of evidence is the ABS.
Slide 1 – Excess death rates Australia – December 2020 to end 2022
The most recent ABS excess death rate in Australia is running about 15% after some very high peaks during 2022. We only have data up to 31 January, 2023.
Before 2022, the highest annual increase in excess deaths was 4.4% in 1964 so you can see from the graph that excess deaths at this level are very abnormal and alarming.
The vaccine rollout in Australia commenced in February, 2021 and excess deaths spike from September, 2021, 6 months later. The peaks correlate with a lag, with booster shots and the excess death rate has not returned to anything near normal since the rollout started.
15% is a very significant percentage increase compared to previous decades and is the highest rate for about 70 years. Given this data, one might think the press and the government might be interested to understand the cause but there are crickets coming from the sources. The question is “why isn’t anybody interested in investigating this massive increase in excess deaths especially when under international health regulations, governments are legally bound to survey, investigate and report on unusual deaths above expected levels and other public health events?”
Clearly, we are in breach of this international health obligations.
On Thursday 23rd March 2023, in the Senate, four independent senators tried to establish a committee to investigate these historic levels of excess deaths but the motion was defeated by all the other senators of the major parties; Liberal, Labor and the Greens.
Why would the people who we elect to supposedly represent us, not want to determine why the people they represent are dying in historic numbers?
While one might examine the overall percentage and it is also interesting to examine the peaks in excess deaths.
For example, in February/March 2022 we had an enormous spike of 30% of excess deaths and then again July/August 2022 another spike of even greater magnitude.
There is a major problem with excess deaths that is not going away.
The excess deaths cannot be explained by other causes like an aging population.
The average age of deaths from covid was 84 in Australia and the government’s own data shows there was not a significant death rate. These numbers could not be called a pandemic. The government mandates do not explain an influence in the data.
Excess deaths in other countries
There are numerous countries with similar excess death rates to Australia. As you will see from the graphs, the same pattern emerges in many other highly vaccinated countries with similar peaks. Here are some graphs of excess deaths in some other countries.
Slide 2: Japanese data
The Japanese government has launched an official investigation into excess deaths in that country. Many of Japan’s prominent scientists have been questioning the safety and efficacy of the so-called vaccines since their deployment.
Slide 3 Germany excess mortality
There are similar spikes in the graphs in all countries with a high vaccination rates.
What this data is showing, is that the same peaks and troughs experienced in Australia, correlated to each round of injections. You would have noticed the similarities of the graphs and that in almost all countries that rolled out the so-called vaccines, there are considerable and statistically significant excess death rates.
There are several measures of variation that we use in statistics to measure the spread between numbers in any data set. But given the very significant increases in excess deaths in this data and the length of time the data has stayed well outside of normal statistical ranges, it could not be argued that these increases are within normal statistical variations. This data is very meaningful and there are multiple standard deviations from the mean. Standard deviations are used to calculate the maximum values expected within a range of values and when the amount of variability in the data is very far from the mean, it could not be described as a normal statistical variation under any circumstances.
Covid caused relatively few deaths in Australia, so claiming covid was responsible for the excess deaths does not agree with the evidence.
The ABS reports that as at 31 January, 2023, there were 15,672 deaths or 3.1% of all deaths where individuals were certified as having died from or with covid. I emphasize “from” or “with” covid. The ABS data shows most people who die with Covid, die from co-morbidities. So, the excess deaths data is not explained by covid deaths with or from covid. The average age of a covid death is Australia is 84 years compared to the average age of a normal death of 82 years.
Correlation of the data
When it comes to the question of whether the deaths caused by the so-called vaccines, we have to examine two statistical concepts.
These are correlation and causation. Correlation means that there is a relationship between two or more things; that mean the variables change together in a similar pattern. In other words, there is a statistical association between the variables. For example, there is a strong correlation between the introduction of the so-called vaccines and the increase in excess deaths.
The “so called vaccines” were introduced in Australia in February, 2021 and the excess death rate increased significantly from around May 2021 when the vaccine rollout was in full swing and deaths then started to exceed the upper threshold to reach statistical significance. The two events, that is the so-called vaccine roll-out and the excess deaths have a strong correlation with an expected lag. So, a strong correlation is clearly established.
I don’t think this is questionable or controversial, as the data is there for all to see. But correlation does not mean causation due to other variables at play.
Having established correlation, is there causation?
Causation on the other hand means that change in one variable caused the change in the other variable. Correlation does not imply causation. There could be other variables (we call confounding variables) that affects both variables that are under investigation. Usually, we need specific research designs to be definitive about causation. That is, we need an experimental group and a control group to study causation statistically but there are other methods that I might get to later.
So, the question becomes if we have strong correlation do we also have causation?
So, let us look at what our world-renowned medical organizations are saying about causation, then what world experts are saying about causation, then what the research evidence is saying about causation and we can make a comparison of a highly vaccinated country to a similar country with low vaccination rates. That way I am only repeating what the best in the world is saying and it can’t be said that it is controversial in any way.
First to the world authority organisations – major peak bodies
Slide 4: CDC video ‘aware of long-lasting health problems due to vaccination’ That is code for causation using weaseling words. Safety Director Dr Tom Shimabukuro.
The US CDC, the world authority on these matters therefore, acknowledges that the vaccines cause very serious heart conditions like myocarditis and pericarditis, strokes etc and studies are underway.
CDC and its partners are actively monitoring reports of myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination to find the direct cause of these heart attacks and strokes.
Is it the covid disease or the covid vaccine causing the excess deaths?
Slide 5 – A large Israel study proved that myocarditis and pericarditis IS NOT caused by covid
Slide 6 – An FDA study showed blood clotting in the lungs was linked to the vaccines. ‘Linked’ means caused by.
Slide 7 – Another very large Nortic study linked the vaccines with myocarditis and pericarditis. Study of 23,000,000 residents.
Often researchers use terms like ‘risk should be balanced with protection’.
Researchers use these terms as they often don’t like to be ‘definitive’ as the researchers need to also serve the people who pay for the research.
Research is often political and mostly funded by the pharmaceutical companies.
American Heart Foundation also agrees there is causality.
So many diverse authoritative international health organisations have linked the vaccines to adverse events and deaths. That is, they have accepted causality.
What about organisations in Australia?
Slide 8 – Australian ATAGI – compares risk of adverse effects against different vaccines indicating higher risk otherwise known as causality.
All these peak bodies agree in different forms of language that the vaccines are causing serious adverse events and deaths.
So, there is very consistent agreement between International and Australian peak health bodies that the covid vaccines cause adverse effects and deaths.
Causation and Bradford Hill principles
Next, what do world experts say about causality?
Slide 9 – Dr Peter McCollough video who is a world authority and most published author in the world on matters related to covid. He asserts that all world peak bodies and authorities acknowledge causality for injuries and deaths in at least 4 key health areas.
The mainstream media do not cover the opinions of world authorities, only quoting the non-authorities; the health bureaucrats.
There are thousands of research studies that support the effectiveness of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, as preventive and treatments for covid. There has never been a time in history when our medical authorities have not treated a virus.
Slide 10 – What are autopsies of vaccinated individuals showing. Many autopsy studies are happening around the globe but governments seem to not support autopsies and do not encourage them. The autopsies are demonstrating that people are dying from the effects of the spike protein, caused by the vaccines, which is damaging many of the major organs of individuals.
Click link to pdf file of Autopsy Evidence
The new vaccines are not biological like previous vaccines. The mRNA is a computer code to tell our cells to manufacture spike proteins that mimics the virus. Also, the lipid nanoparticles are also not biological. They are synthetic and man-made. We don’t know what these substances are made of. These are gene therapies, completely new and novel.
So now we have seen, that there are thousands of top medical experts and scientists who all agree that the vaccines are causing both serious adverse effects and deaths.
Bradford Hill principles
Slide 11 – Bradford Hill principles
The data and research evidence proves causation. Each of the principles in the Bradford Hill criteria are also met showing causation.
In 1965, the English epidemiologist Sir Austin Bradford Hill established certain criteria, otherwise known as Hill’s criteria for causation. These are a group of nine principles that can be useful in establishing epidemiologic evidence of a causal relationship between a presumed cause and an observed effect and these principles have been widely used in public health research for over 50 years.
The list of the criteria is as follows:
- Strength (effect size): A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal.
- Consistency (reproducibility): Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect.
- Specificity: Causation is likely if there is a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.
- Temporality: The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay).
- Biological gradient (dose–response relationship): Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.
- Plausibility: A plausible mechanism between cause and effect is helpful (but Hill noted that knowledge of the mechanism is limited by current knowledge).
- Coherence: Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. However, Hill noted that “lack of such [laboratory] evidence cannot nullify the epidemiological effect on associations”.
- Experiment: “Occasionally it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence”.
- Analogy: The use of analogies or similarities between the observed association and any other associations.
Next, what does the medical research evidence say about causality?
Dr Peter McCollough has a data base of over 1200 peer reviewed papers demonstrating that the vaccines are dangerous. In times past, 10 peer reviewed papers and 50 deaths would have been more than enough to have these vaccines taken off the market.
There are over 1200 peer reviewed papers on vaccine injuries and deaths collected from legitimate research journals around the globe and held by Dr Peter McCollough, a world-renowned cardiologist and epidemiologist. Dr McCollough has been calling for over 2 years, that these so-called vaccines must be stopped immediately.
In summary then, we have world leading organisations, thousands of medical experts and scientists who all have concluded that the vaccines are causing the serious adverse effects and deaths.
One comparable country _ Cameroon
To round off the issue of causation, let us look quickly at a case study of a highly vaccinated versus low vaccinated country.
When it comes to comparing countries, difficulties arise because different countries use different methods and criteria to collect data. So, I have selected Cameroon as it has a population of 26 million, very similar to Australia.
Australia’s covid vaccination rate is 92%
Cameroon’s vaccination rate is about 5%
We have already examined the excess death rates here in Australia that peaked above 30% and is now around 15%.
In comparison, as of 16th March, 2023, Cameroon with a low vaccination rate had 1,966 deaths.
Slide 12 – Cameroon
As shown in the graph, unlike Australia, there were no peaks in the death rate and in fact, the death rate continued to remain steady and decline slightly through 2020 to 2022.
Given the difficulties of comparing countries, that is about the best comparison data I could find but it is a good comparable case study.
To summarize again
In science, the set of available facts at any time determines what is the best explanation for causality and with the peak health organizations, world experts and peer reviewed science all saying that the vaccines are causing the serious adverse effects and deaths, and the Hills test that clearly establishes causality between the so-called vaccines and the excess deaths. There is no other plausible explanation in my opinion and those who swim against this tsunami of data, expert opinion and research evidence are being intellectually dishonest.
A final point on this question. The evidence measures only short-term effects of the so-called vaccines. There are no mid (3-5 years) or long term (5-10 years) data on the effects. The trends in the data are all demonstrating that we are in the early stages of witnessing some very disturbing health outcomes from these injections.
Current Birth rates
Australia for the last decade around 300,000 births per year.
No ABS data since December, 2021.
Slide 13 – shows birth rates in Australia during 2021.
Massive, unprecedented decline in birth rates.
Substantial Birth Rate Drops in 13 European Countries, England/Wales, Australia, and Taiwan.
Every single examined European country shows a monthly decline in birth rates of up to more than 10% compared to the last three years.
I guess it’s just me but why wouldn’t a real journalist be interested in a story like this? Why aren’t politicians explaining possible explanations to their electorates? Why the silence?
Anecdotal evidence shows that miscarriages and still births have increased in medical practices.
There is mounting evidence that the spike proteins in the bodies of the injected, build up in the reproductive regions and may be causing sterility.
Why are authorities being untruthful about what is happening?
Conflict of Interest
Slide 14 – Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street
These three companies own or control:
The pharmaceutical companies
The mainstream media
The big technology companies.
Even Australia’s eight largest banks
The TGA and ATAGI is required to recover its costs through fees and charges for all activities that fall within the scope of the Therapeutic Goods Act 1989, including the TGA’s public health responsibilities. So these organisations are also almost entirely funded by the same pharmaceutical industry it regulates, who are controlled by these three companies.
And finally, the major political parties are funded by pharmaceutical companies, who in turn are controlled by these three companies.
Follow the money and you find where the false narrative is coming from.
About the Author
Professor Peter Miller an expert in Statistics. who was responsible for running doctoral PHD programs at University, for many years and was the foundation director for the International Centre of Professional Doctorates; which included the Doctorate of Business Administration, the largest professional doctorate program in the Southern hemisphere; the Doctorate of Education and the Doctorate of Aboriginal Studies. He has an overview in different types of research, that academics don’t often get.
He has taught Statistics and Quantitative Methods, overseas and in Australia, and has a broad experience in research.
Professor Miller gives an objective, non biased view of the medical research and data; looking at the validity design, generalizations and analysis and he has written 7 books on this topic.
Censored from Linkedin and almost all social media platforms, he provides a frank analysis and discussion of the data relating to covid19, vaccination and the data on deaths.
Click the link below to watch Professor Millers being interviewed by Dan Hanson of Health Alliance Australia.
CALL TO ACTION
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